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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.